Advances in the Standards & Applied Sciences

Advances in the Standards & Applied Sciences

Analyzing Final Demand Components under Hypothetical Green Subsidy Scenarios in Iran’s Agricultural Sector: Implications for Agricultural Product Quality

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
1 PhD in Agricultural Economics (Research Assessment Management Systems Research Center, Standard Research Institute)
2 Assisstant Professor (Textile and Leather reseach Group, Chemistry and Petrochemistry Research center, Standard Research Institute)
10.22034/asas.2026.577797.1098
Abstract
Green subsidies have been proposed as a policy instrument to encourage environmentally sustainable agricultural practices and potentially improve agricultural product quality. This study examines the potential effects of hypothetical green subsidy policies on final demand components and selected agricultural economic indicators in Iran using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Since such a green subsidy has not been implemented as a specific agricultural policy instrument in Iran, the analysis is conducted as an ex ante counterfactual policy simulation. Three alternative subsidy scenarios—20%, 50%, and 100%—are simulated relative to the baseline equilibrium. The model is calibrated using Iran’s Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), and simulations are conducted using the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). The results indicate that agricultural gross national product and private consumption increase under all three scenarios, whereas agricultural investment decreases as the subsidy rate increases. Agricultural imports also increase across the scenarios, with larger increases at higher subsidy rates. These findings demonstrate heterogeneous effects across final demand components and indicate that a green subsidy does not automatically improve all agricultural economic indicators. The results suggest that green subsidies, if implemented, should be designed as targeted and conditional incentives linked to measurable environmental and product-quality criteria and accompanied by complementary measures to strengthen domestic production capacity and reduce excessive import dependence. Overall, the study provides an ex ante assessment of the potential economic effects and trade-offs associated with alternative levels of hypothetical green subsidy support in Iran.
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